DILI, Timor-Leste – East Timor, one of the most recent countries formed in the 21st century, is also one of Asia’s poorest nations. Despite this poverty, the growing economy and seeming stability of this nation following the end of decades-long conflict with Indonesia has caused the BBC to declare it one of “the U.N.’s biggest success stories.”
However, this success seems to be in jeopardy as the oil and gas supplies Timor-Leste uses to buoy its growing economy may be running dry soon.
The high rate of poverty further complicates matters, as the country’s attempts to ameliorate this situation also resides on further funds from oil and gas revenues.
Timor-Leste, home to over 1.1 million individuals, was a Portuguese colony until its occupation by Indonesia in 1975. It achieved independence in 2002, after a decades-long conflict in which an estimated 100,000 people, of what would be Timor- Leste, died.
Independence, however, while bringing a cessation to the conflict with Indonesia, did not solve the problems of wealth inequality and widespread rural poverty which continue to characterize the nation.
Prior to the Indonesian withdrawal, roughly 70 percent of the country’s infrastructure was destroyed in the conflict. Unemployment and poverty continued to plague the nation and were the primary factors in causing unrest there in 2006. This unrest ultimately caused over 150,000 people to be displaced and U.N. peacekeepers to be sent to Timor-Leste.
This crisis would be solved through the use of funds garnered by the country’s oil and natural gas sales. Using the revenue from this, the government of Timor-Leste resettled those that were displaced and began to address the financial concerns of those involved in the riots.
Poverty and unemployment plague the rural areas of the nation, where roughly 75 percent of the population of Timor-Leste lives. One of the most disturbing consequences of this high rate of poverty are the rates of stunting in the area.
According to the U.N. Children’s Fund (UNICEF) more than 50 percent of the children under five in Timor-Leste, almost 100,000 children, are stunted. ‘Stunting’ refers to when a child’s future and current growth is impeded by malnutrition.
A 2013 report by UNICEF listed Timor-Leste as having one of the worst rates in the world for stunted children, with a 58 percent rate for children under five.
The preliminary analysis of 2014 by UNICEF shows this rate dropping to 52 percent, a percentage which remains, however, devastatingly high.
As Timor-Leste begins to combat these problems, its attempts seem to be in jeopardy as its main source of revenue may soon be drying up.
Lao Hamutuk, a Dili-based policy analysis organization, said that the oil and gas reserves could be depleted in a mere seven years, and that by 2025 all funds generated by the oil and gas may be gone.
With a significant percentage of the government’s revenue coming from the oil and gas – roughly 90 percent of state revenue – this would be catastrophic for Timor-Leste’s continued development as a nation.
A potentially painful transition period seems to be in the near future for Timor-Leste as it attempts to lower its dependency on its oil and gas revenues. It is up to the international community to assist during this time.
A diplomatic intervention now by the international community could prevent a military intervention in the future from becoming necessary.
– Albert Cavallaro
Sources: Wiley Online Library, IRIN 1, United Nations, UNICEF, IRIN 2, IRIN 3, BBC News
Photo: BarryGreyville-Eyres