PROVO, Utah—The crisis currently playing out in Syria is a complicated situation that few of us fully understand. From why Syrians starting fighting in the first place to why the United States hasn’t done more to stop the massacre, there are often more questions than answers.
Many of those complex questions were answered last week when Brigham Young University professors gave a lecture on BYU campus. Donna Bowen, Joshua Gubler and Quinn Mecham were the key speakers and addressed five fundamental questions we all have about Syria.
1) Why did the Syrian conflict start in the first place?
In April 2011, individuals in many small towns across Syria began protesting against the regime. These protests were peaceful, but quickly gained momentum. Within months thousands of citizens were speaking out against the government.
Beshar al-Assad’s regime replied to the protests with extreme force. The regime destroyed entire neighborhoods and killed thousands of citizens within months, many of whom were innocent bystanders.
But what prompted Syrians to start protesting in the first place? The country’s failed economic condition is the mostly likely reason behind the 2011 protests said Bowen, a political science professor and Middle East family policy expert.
After Assad assumed the presidency in 2000, serious economic problems developed in the country. Industries decreased, market growth stalled and the income gap widened. Most of the country’s wealth was controlled by Syrian politicians and elites, leaving many average citizens in poverty. Many years of a failing economy was likely one of the igniters of the uprising.
The other likely reason behind the uprising is much more complicated Bowen said. Syria has borders that were constructed by colonial powers, forcing together people from various religious and ethnic groups. These groups include Sunni Muslims, Kurds, Christians and Alawites. Relations between these various groups have been strained since Syria gained independence in 1961.
Syria is currently ruled by members of the minority Arab sect known as Alawites. Even though the majority of Syrians are Sunni Arabs, they have little political influence. The Alawite government is repressive of other minority groups and give Alawites special privileges economically and politically. This blatant discrimination has angered many Sunnis and in turn may have caused them to rebel against the regime.
2) What’s the current situation in Syria?
The situation in Syria has escalated into a full-fledged civil war said Gubler, a politics professor and Middle East conflict expert.
Approximately 120,000 people have been killed since the fighting began. It’s estimated that 150,000 people will die in 2014 as a direct result of the conflict.
Millions of people have been forced to flee their homes since 2011. Approximately 3 million people have been internally displaced and another 2 million are living in refugee camps in Jordan and Turkey.
The regime continues to use missiles on the ground and a chemical weapon attack killed hundreds of innocent civilians in August.
3) Why has the war not ended?
While there’s no simple answer to this question, Gubler gives two theories on why the war has been dragging on for over two years.
The first theory is that the opposition force is not one cohesive group. The rebels are comprised of multiple groups and no one voice can speak or negotiate for them. The rebels consist of many fragmented groups including: National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, Muslim Brotherhood, and foreign fighters belonging to various radical Islamic groups.
The second theory why the war has not ended is the difficulty associated with the transition from an autocracy to another type of government. The situation is made even more difficult because not all members of the opposition are in favor of democracy. Some forces want an Islamic state established in Syria.
Even if opposition forces in favor of democracy eventually gain majority, the transition is unlikely to be clean. New leaders emerge and often became autocrats just like their predecessors. It can take years before an effective leader finally comes to power.
4) Why has the United States not done more?
Many people wonder why the United States have not done more to stop the fighting. Some question why the government intervened early on in the Libyan conflict, but have neglected to do so in Syria.
There were strong economic reasons for international intervention in Libya, but the situation is not as clear in Syria, explained Quinn Mecham, a former policy adviser to Secretary Clinton.
While there is a strong moral reason for intervention in Syria, there simply isn’t a domestic politics argument for intervention. Syria is deeply embedded in a complicated region and has a highly urban landscape that makes intervention difficult. Iran and Russia’s continued support of the regime complicate things even further.
5) What is the future for Syria?
Mecham made several predictions regarding the future of the Syrian conflict. First, he believes there is no end in sight for the war. The conflict will likely continue on for many more years and will continue spilling over into neighboring countries. Thousands more refugees will flee to Turkey and Jordan and regional rivalries will intensify even further.
Mecham suggests that the most urgent issues regarding the conflict are mainly humanitarian. He said the U.S. government has “failed to make decisions to lessen the suffering of people” and that intervening in Syria on a humanitarian basis—rather than a political one—should be a top priority going forward.
– Allison Johnson
Sources: BYU, Washington Post
Photo: Ideastream