SEATTLE — While the Iran deal appears to be uncharted territory in the field of P5+1 and Iranian negotiations, a close look at the economic climate for the everyday Iranian paints an all too familiar picture.
When Iran’s nuclear agenda came to light in the early 2000s, business involving both the purchase of Iranian exports and exports to Iran from the US and EU became heavily restricted. Many forms of trade with Iran were halted, ranging from the sale of computers to the sale of carpets.
However, there has been speculation as to whether these sanctions have hurt the Iranian government be or if the Iranian poor were taking the hardest hit while the government continued their uranium refinement unfazed.
According to the Council on Foreign Relations, Iran’s government is prepared to weather a sanction storm.
“Iran has been expecting these sanctions for quite awhile,” said Hassan Hakiman of the London Middle East Institute. “…They are, in a sense, better prepared than most people might realize.”
The Iranian poor on the other hand, remain unprepared for the price shocks that have followed. When the sanctions hit in 2012, the currency collapsed 40 percent according to Forbes.
While some Iranians have managed to adapt to an era of hyperinflation, others, primarily the poor have struggled to obtain food, medicine and other everyday items due to a 73 percent decrease in purchasing power.
“Many workers cannot even afford the basic products they need for survival, and many of these items are now considered luxuries,” said Rahmatollah Poormoussa, the head of Iran’s state labor organization.
The problems caused by hyperinflation are not new. Nearly one hundred years ago, hyperinflation following Germany’s defeat in World War I essentially destroyed the newly formed Weimar Republic.
While the severity of the inflation seen in the Weimar republic bars a perfect comparison, there are similarities between the problems that faced the drafters of the Treaty of Versailles and the arbiters of the Iran deal.
In both cases, the Allies (in 1918) and the P5+1 (in 2015) are dealing with a nation with the capacity to promote widespread violence. The German Shlieffen Plan (although hindered by the Belgians) resulted in the loss of 6,000 Belgian non-combatants and the brining of 25,000 homes and civilian buildings.
Should Iran continue to pursue their nuclear agenda, they would be capable of waging nuclear war on the United States that could kill millions.
The tendency here is to punish the perceived aggressor—economically, especially; to weaken their capacity to ever wage war on that scale.
This was precisely what was done in the Treaty of Versailles. Germany was saddled with the War Guilt cause and plunged into millions of mark of debt. As inflation soared, their ability to participate in trade plummeted, and never reached a level comparable to 1914 until the 1960s according to the International Business Times.
Perhaps even more importantly, these disastrous conditions set the stage for a new round of conflict, destruction and death in the late thirties and forties with the rise of the Nazi Party from the shambles of Weimar’s hyperinflation.
With the Iran deal the United States is starting history in the face: while the deal to curb Iran’s nuclear processes may not be as aggressive as many Americans hoped it would be, the consequences of continued Iranian economic collapse due to harsh sanctioning could be far greater.
Just as the starving Weimar citizens turned to Nazi extremism to salvage their lives, the suffering Iranian populace may soon seek similarly aggressive leadership to improve their situation
The seeds are already there according to Maryam Rajavi, elected president of the Iranian Resistance.
“Iranian households suffer from hunger due to poverty and destitution. Twelve million sleep hungry each night. If the Mullahs ignore the economic implosions it would lead to the eruption of population protests.”
With this is mind, the pressure on the United States to consider all aspects of the Iran deal is heightened. The security aspects of the Iran deal lie not only in the capacity to refine Uranium but in the convictions of twelve million Iranian poor.
– Emma Betuel
Sources: Iran Focus, Forbes, Global Citizen, Treasury 1, Treasury 2, CFR, HRW, Cato Institute, International Business Times
Photo: Flickr