LONDON, United Kingdom – On February 13, 2014, The HAC, London will host a summit to address the looming global food security crisis in 2050. The United Nations projects the world’s population growth to reach 9.6 billion by 2050; an additional 2 billion people will need access to food.
The summit’s speakers will focus on several issues, which are currently creating this looming crisis: limited agricultural land, water scarcity, infrastructure and biodiversity challenges, and the effects of climate change on existing food production and distribution infrastructures. According to the summit’s Web site, this event will “shed light on the crucial measures needed to create sustainable solutions for future food security” and discuss the necessity for improved nutrition and sustainable agricultural markets.
This summit will be the latest in the string of multiple efforts to address the food shortages expected in 2050. In 2003, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and The Johns Hopkins University Press published a book titled Ending Hunger in Our Lifetime: Food Security and Globalization and written by C. Ford Runge, Benjamin Senauer, Philip G. Pardey, and Mark W. Rosegrant. The authors’ analysis of the compiled research reveals that we can avoid the food security crisis by implementing “concrete actions and policy changes” to reduce hunger substantially by 2025 and end mass hunger by 2050.
Firstly, population growth is only one of the present challenges set to cause the future food crisis. By 2050, the increased use of fertilizers in food production will dehydrate existing water sources and create “dead zones” in water ways; use of pesticides will increase by 170 percent and cause a rise in the levels of agricultural pesticides found in the food; forests and other natural systems will be converted to agricultural land, which will decrease biodiversity; and increased demand for water for nonagricultural use, under-investment in water supplies and management will end in water scarcity.
However, changes to investments and policies can reverse this downward spiral with several solutions. The book’s authors advocate for investments in people and science, innovative policies and institutional reform, and investments for a hunger-free world. Investing in human capital, especially women’s education, will increase economic productivity, lower fertility rates and build a foundation for a better life for children. Investing in science will help modernizations like pest-resistant biotechnologies and improved farming systems, which will increase agricultural productivity and limit loss of biodiversity.
Innovative policies and institutional reform can allow organizations like the World Bank to focus on food-insecure countries and provide direct technical support. Finally, knowing how much funding will be needed and what its sources will be will require coordination and cooperation among the five main sources of investments: governments of the developing countries, remittances from these countries’ citizens working abroad, foreign assistance, private international targeted investments, and global philanthropy.
In all, the 2003 study concluded that the food security system needs to adapt to the current changes and modernize to solve future food problems. The 2014 summit appears to communicate that same message.
– Yuliya Shokh
Sources: Economist, International Food Policy Research Institute
Photo: Kate Holt